Most pundits had written off the 4th as a Republican lock for 2006, but Lucas' entry instantly turned what would have been an easy reelection bid for Davis into one of the hottest in the campaign cycle, even though the 4th is considered the most Republican district in Kentucky. As mentioned above, despite a substantial Democratic advantage in voter registration, the influence of the heavily Republican Cincinnati suburbs kept the district in Republican hands from 1967 until Lucas won the seat in 1998. In August Congressional Quarterly rated this race as "Lean Republican." In late July the Washington Post also rated the race as a toss-up. A SurveyUSA poll released on July 25, 2006 showed Lucas leading 50% to 41%, although Davis has a decisive lead in fundraising.